Superstorms and Rising Seas: Observing Tropical Cyclones and Predicting Their Impacts (#1069)
Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have devastating impacts causing human suffering and economic loses, which could be worsen over the coastal regions by the rising seas. The storm induced damages are far more complex than what traditional TC track and intensity forecast alone can capture, which have been highlighted by the Superstorm Sandy (2012), Hurricanes Harvey and Irma (2017). The extreme wind, rain, surface waves, and copious sea spray in TCs push the current numerical weather prediction models into untested regimes. The erroneous surface heat, moisture, and momentum fluxes can cause compounding errors in the model forecast of rainfall, surface winds, and storm surge. This talk will provide an overview on progress made in coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean-land modeling and observing TCs in field campaigns in recent years, challenges we are facing, and ways forward. TC forecast is going through a paradigm shift from track and intensity to explicit impact forecast such as the extreme winds and rain, high waves, storm surge, and flooding. Recent advancement in science and technology, especially in integrated Earth System science and fully coupled atmosphere-wave-ocean-land modeling capability will enable us to address the challenge and meet societal needs in TC impact forecasting and decision-making by the coastal communities worldwide with growing population and build environment in a changing climate and rising seas.