A new tropical cyclone wind hazard assessment for Australia (#1071)
The 2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment (TCHA18) provides an evaluation of the likelihood and intensity (“how big and how often”) of the occurrence of tropical cyclone (TC) winds across the Australian region, covering mainland Australia, islands and adjacent waters. It is a probabilistic evaluation of the expected maximum gust wind speeds generated by TCs, with a range of average recurrence intervals (ARIs) between 2 and 10,000 years, or conversely, average exceedance probabilities (AEPs). The TCHA18 provides hazard profiles (ARI versus wind speed) for over 400 locations in Australia and neighbouring regions, and a catalogue of synthetic TC events that can be used for scenario exercises. The TCHA18 also establishes a baseline for the understanding of TC hazard in the current climate against which projections of future TC wind hazard can be compared.
We will demonstrate data access methods and applications of the TCHA18 for a range of users. A key component of the TCHA18 is the synthetic event catalogue that contains details of all events that informed the probabilistic assessment. The event catalogue can be interrogated by users to find TC events for more detailed modelling, leading to impact assessment studies.