CMIP5 projected changes in mean and extreme climate in the Silk Road Economic Belt region (#2020)
The Silk Road Economic Belt region shows great vulnerability to climate change. Thus, the climate change projection information is of great value for the reduction of climate change risk in this region. Using the simulation data archived in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), this study projects the change of mean and extreme temperature and precipitation in the Silk Road Economic Belt region under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). Results indicate a consistent warming for annul mean temperature, which increases over time with stronger increase corresponding to stronger RCP forcing. Annual precipitation is projected to increase in most of the region with the great increase in West Asia (18%) and North Asia (10%). East Asia will also receive more precipitation except that a decrease of annual precipitation appears in the south of the Yangtze River valley (5%) in the near term. In addition, the increase under the RCP2.6 is generally greater (smaller) than that for RCP.85 during the mid- (late) 21st century. These changes include an overall warming in the highest temperature (TXx) and the lowest temperature (TNn) across the regions, the most intense warming is projected to occur in NAS (6.1℃), INS (7.2℃), CAS (6.5℃) and CEU (7.8℃) followed by EAS (5.95℃) and WAS (6.1℃) under RCP8.5 scenario, the warming magnitude is larger for TNn than for TXx, a pronounced increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) by 5 days in Central Asia, West Asia, Southeast Asia, the south of the Yangtze River valley and Central Europe under the RCP8.5 scenario, and an remarkable enhancement of extreme precipitation (RX5day) in East Asia, South Asia, and Southeast Asia, will increase about 20%, 35% and 33%, respectively.