Future changes in tropospheric temperature profiles for Australia — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
  1. Schedule
  2. 12(ii). Regional climate modelling and its applications
  3. Future changes in tropospheric temperature profiles for Australia

Future changes in tropospheric temperature profiles for Australia (#117)

Fei Ji 1 , Jason P. Evans 2 , Alejandro Di Luca 2 , Giovanni Di Virgilio 2 , Lluis Fita 3 , Stephanie Downes 1 , Kathleen Beyer 1
  1. NSW Office of Environment and Heritage, Queanbeyan, NSW, Australia
  2. Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  3. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA), CONICET-UBA, CNRS UMI-IFAECI C. A. Buenos Aires , ARGENTINA

The temperature profile of the Earth’s atmosphere reflects a balance between the radiation, convective and dynamical heating/cooling of surface-atmosphere system. Any changes in vertical temperature profiles will have impacts on atmospheric stability which is directly related to diverse types of weather systems such as thunder storm and their severity.

In this study, we first analyze observed changes in long-term (20-year) mean vertical temperature profiles for Australian monitoring sites, and then assess the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model’s capability to simulate observed temperature profiles. Subsequently we use outputs of 12 historical and future Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations (each with three-time periods: 1990-2009, 2020-2039, and 2060-2079) from the NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project to investigate future changes in mean annual and seasonal vertical temperature profiles for different climate zones in Australia. Results for selected CMIP5 Global Climate Models (GCMs) and their downscaled Regional Climate Models (RCMs) will also be included for comparison.

The results show that there are substantial changes in vertical temperature profiles for Australia, which will dramatically impact local weather systems such as near surface inversion. Further assessments are required to quantify potential impacts of these changes.

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