Predicted future extreme fire conditions in Australia — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

Predicted future extreme fire conditions in Australia (#228)

Giovanni Di Virgilio 1 , Jason Evans 1 , Stephanie Blake 1 , Matthew Armstrong 2
  1. University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
  2. University of Newcastle, Newcastle

Wildfires characterised by violent pyroconvection have caused devastation in many regions globally. Given that fire-atmosphere feedback processes are associated with these fires, future changes in coincident high index values of vertical atmospheric instability and dryness (C-Haines), and near-surface fire weather, were assessed for southeastern Australia using a high-resolution (10 km) regional climate projection ensemble. There was a statistically significant increase in the number of days conducive to pyroconvection events during November and December in 2060-2079 relative to 1990-2009, including nearby rapidly growing conurbations. Projected increases in C-Haines values were linked to decreased 850 hPa humidity in 2060-2079. Given that increasing C-Haines index levels can contribute to violent pyroconvection, these findings indicate increased potential for dangerous wildfires at specific future periods and locations. These findings help improve forecasting of conditions conducive to pyroconvection, thus improving preparedness for mitigating the associated risks, and also have implications for continued urbanisation of fire-prone landscapes.

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