Extreme events such as droughts, heat waves and floods can have significant and long lasting financial, infrastructural and environmental impacts for local agriculture. While probabilistic multi-week and seasonal prediction outlooks are commonplace, these services are often focused on the middle of the distribution of possible outcomes - for example forecasts of probability of above or below median, or probability of mean conditions within an extended period exceeding some threshold. These kinds of products do not cover the types of extreme events that are often the most damaging for agriculture, such as several consecutive days of extreme heat, or an extended period where rainfall is in the lowest decile of historical years.

A newly funded 5-year project will deliver direct value to the agricultural sector through providing forecasts of extreme events, equipping farmers with the information and tools to be forewarned and prepared. The project is supported by the Australian Government Department of Agriculture and Water Resources as part of its Rural R&D for Profit programme.

The Bureau of Meteorology, working with a number of research partners, will develop and deliver ensemble forecast products of the likelihood of climate extremes on multi-week to seasonal timescales. These products will use data from the Bureau’s new seasonal forecasting system ACCESS-S. The prototype products created will be trialed with users to assess their impact and value to the agricultural sector. A subset of the products developed - those found to be the most skillful and useful - will then be provided as official Bureau forecasts to the public.

We will present the plan and scope of the project, as well as the first set of forecast products that are currently being trialed with project partners and stakeholders.