ACCESS-S model products for managing northern Australia climate variability — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
  1. Schedule
  2. 29. Climate application for the tropics
  3. ACCESS-S model products for managing northern Australia climate variability

ACCESS-S model products for managing northern Australia climate variability (#222)

Oscar Alves 1 , Timothy Cowan 2 , Matthew Wheeler 1 , Paul Gregory 1 , Debbie Hudson 1 , Roger Stone 2
  1. Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VICTORIA, Australia
  2. Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, University of Southern Queensland, Toowoomba, QLD, Australia

The development of a new dynamical seasonal prediction model, ACCESS-S (Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator – Seasonal), to replace the Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA2) is a major step forward in the ability to predict climate variability on multi-week to seasonal time scales in northern Australia. The ACCESS-S modelling framework provides improved seasonal forecast skill and enables a range of products to be developed that impact grazing industries, vital to the economy and exports across the north.

A range of products will be presented, including climate drivers such as ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) and the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation). Products will also be presented that show the probabilities of rainfall and temperature being in specified categories in the upcoming weeks, months and seasons.

The model skill will be presented for northern Australia. Different ways of presenting skill or past performance for specific products will be presented. This will illustrate the issue of presenting model accuracy in a way that can be understood by the average user.

#AMOS2019