The next generations of NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) — Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

The next generations of NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) (#102)

Stephanie Downes 1 , Kathleen Beyer 1 , Fei Ji 1 , Jason Evans 2 , Giovanni Di Virgilio 2 , Nicholas Herold 1
  1. NSW Office of Environment & Heritage, Lidcombe, NSW, Australia
  2. Climate Change Research Centre and Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of NSW, Sydney, NSW, Australia

The NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling (NARCliM) project produced three 20-year climate projections (1990-2009; 2020-2039; 2060-2079) was released in 2014. It has since been applied widely in climate impacts research, climate adaptation, risk management and planning. The main NARCliM dataset is a 12-model ensemble based on 4 general circulation models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) that are dynamically downscaled to 10 km grid resolution using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and following Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) modelling conventions.  Current improvements in model development will greatly enhance the accessibility and usability of future generations of NARCliM. Future improvements include an ocean and wave model and downscaling to resolutions finer than 4 km in selected areas. We will show how dynamically downscaled simulations from CMIP3 and the current Phase 5 CMIP5 over NSW and surrounding regions can be used complementarily and be used effectively by end-users. We will present an analysis of the benefits of using continuous 1950-2100 regional model data (NARCliM1.5) compared with the three 20-year NARCliM periods in order to capture the impacts of multiple projected climate extremes and natural hazards for climate risk assessment.

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